Trump's Exit

Prediction is often another word for illusion, and since I am not Tiresias or some other prophet from Greek mythology, I won’t attempt it. Still, everyone must go, from presidents to paramecia, and only a set number of options exist. Here are those related to Trump.

Death, Natural. He’s 79 and not in the best physical condition. Something sudden or quick is both entirely possible and not at all certain. I do not expect a narcissist to commit suicide, at least not directly, though eating lots of nachos would make him more orange and could lead to arterial catastrophe. Four sitting presidents have died in office of natural causes to date. None have died from broader natural disasters and probably neither will Trump.

Might he survive a second term (or even more, should he become an effective dictator), he’ll die eventually. Give or take Enoch and Elijah, everyone dies—Stalin, Pol Pot, Pinochet, Khrushchev, Disney. Some died as dictators, others in retirement, and we’re not sure about frozen Disney and if he might be revived at some point to fire corporate leaders.

Death, Assassination. This cannot be ruled out for any president. I do not recommend this as a course of action, both for ethical reasons and because an assassinated Trump would become a martyr to his cult and make it more likely to persist. Since four presidents have died after being shot and others have survived attempts, on a percentage basis the job is rather dangerous.

Death, Apocalyptic. With his finger on the big red button, who knows?

Incapacity, Natural Causes. Might he have a stroke or develop a disabling disease and be subject to a 25^th Amendment action by his supporters? If the incapacity is serious enough. A physical disability would do the trick more certainly than mental illness (because differentiating between a mentally ill Trump and the one we currently see is problematic). When might Vice-Pres. Vance and a majority of the Cabinet make this move? I imagine only when the incapacity becomes unavoidably obvious and is unlikely to change in the short term. A serious stroke, or a coma, or some other problem in that neighborhood would be sufficient. If he did not recover, Vance could serve out the remainder of the term and inadvertently, constantly remind everyone that he’s not a cult figure to most Trumpists.

One argument Vance and others might make is that the 25^th Amendment includes a method for the president to be restored to office if the president is once again able to serve.

Incapacity, Caused By an Attack. The same motives would be in play but with overlays of hagiography from Trump’s base. If the president was forced out of the action by physical injuries that did not kill him, it might be more difficult to operate those never-used portions of the 25^th Amendment. Quite possibly conspiracy theory would dominate Trump’s base since for the majority of them it’s their default mode anyway. Expect accusations against Vance and possibly others, without documentation but with enormous outcries. This might easily also apply to incapacity by natural causes though then the president’s personal physician would have to be in on the conspiracy which is without a doubt what some Trumpists would say even though they might be pristinely uncontaminated by evidence.

Resignation. At the moment this seems a remote possibility. If it ever occurs, it would be forced as Nixon’s was though Trump may not be as capable of rational political analysis as Nixon, especially since he’s only a fraction as intelligent. And what moral core exists in Trump? Nixon showed traces of one, but we have no evidence that Trump would feel enough remorse and regret over any action to voluntarily resign. Stranger things have happened than a Trump resignation, but not many and not often.

Impeachment and Removal. What would it take for Republicans in Congress to unify and act against Trump in sufficient numbers to force his removal? Again, the mind boggles at what would be needed. They have swallowed whole so many mouthfuls of what most Republicans of the past would have spit out. If it ever became incontrovertible that Trump was a Russian agent, that might do the trick. But the GOP is so craven these days that the key word in that sentence is “might.” And the Democrats do not have the numbers to impeach without considerable Republican help.

Prevented From Running Again. Sure, it’s unconstitutional for Trump to stand for election again in 2028, but he’s already talked about violating the hell out of our framework of government and running anyway. But the GOP may look for a younger and more tractable candidate instead. And if he makes a serious attempt to keep power at that point, the next couple of possibilities become more likely.

Coup. Quite a few sources these days assert that Trump is alienating many in the military, and also many Democratic governors who might be able to persuade some National Guard units to help. This whole scenario is an enormous question mark since if a coup is being planned, no one is leaking the details to the Associated Press. Is one possible even if improbable? Before 2025 I’d have bet not. Now, I’m not betting at all though when pushed I’d guess that it’s not likely—yet.

Avoiding this route would be better for democracy for the long haul. Since a coup might conceivably start a civil war, it should be considered a nightmare rather than a daydream for those who despise this hideous presidency. And the precedent it would set is exactly what the delegates at the 1787 Constitutional Convention hoped to avoid.

A foreign-led coup would be unthinkable except that I wonder what the G7 leaders talk about when Trump’s not around. American craziness is automatically global craziness.

General Uprising. To paraphrase Tom Jefferson, Ben Franklin, and John Adams (what a composition committee) in paragraph two of the Declaration of Independence:  “when lengthy and frequent abuses and unlawful takeovers make clear the goal of reducing the people under despotism, it is their right and duty to throw off such government, and to create new safeguards for their future security.”

From the vantage of June, 2025, I don’t know when or if a revolt might occur. But our respect for authority must end when that authority abuses people regularly and systematically. Or, if you prefer, our respect for the Constitution and constitutional process must supersede our deference to any person regardless of position. If some members of the Supreme Court argue the opposite, then the general uprising might need to take them into custody as well. Not only presidents are capable of abuse. And I’d rather trust the ideas of Madison and Hamilton than those of Thomas and Alito.

What would happen to Trump if enough people rose up? He might escape to a friendly haven (Dubai? Moscow?). He might disappear, by which I mean that he would be taken to a secret location and kept there, alive or dead. He might be summarily executed as Ceausescu and Gaddafi were. Or, he might be captured, placed on trial, and given either life in prison or the death penalty. All of these options are not simply uncharted waters, but oceans on planets we have not yet discovered.

Conclusion. I cannot predict, or guess, or speculate about how Trump’s presidency and life will end, but they will, as certainly as we are all mortal (even Keith Richards). Our corrupt and amoral and narcissistic and generally foolish president will some day die or be incapacitated or leave office some other way.

Is it wrong to long for that moment? If we respect the Constitution and love our country, and those are under threat, then no. To quote the Declaration near its conclusion, a leader “whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.”