Could the House Change Hands?

 

      Could the House of Representatives change hands during the current term?

            Recent developments suggest that it’s possible.

            At this moment (Nov. 24, 2025), Republicans hold 219 seats while Democrats have 213 and three seats are vacant. Who will fill them?

            Vacancy for the Texas 18^th District: Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) died in March, and the GOP leadership of Texas has been in no hurry to fill the vacancy. A runoff will be held on Jan. 31 between the two biggest vote getters from the first round. Both candidates are Democrats.

            Vacancy for the Tennessee 7^th District:  Rep. Mark Green (R) resigned in July. The winners of the Oct. 7 primary will contend on Dec. 2; the district tends to vote heavily Republican and national polling organizations list the seat as “likely” GOP.

            Vacancy for the New Jersey 11^th District: Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned on Nov. 20 after being elected governor of New Jersey. The current governor set a primary for Feb. 5 and a special election for April 16. The general expectation is that a Democrat will win the seat.  

          

       Expected vacancy for the Georgia 14^th District: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announced recently that she would resign from the House effective Jan. 5. Under Georgia law, the governor can set a date for replacement elections within ten days of a resignation taking effect, and call for one as early as thirty days later, so the earliest possible date would be in February. It is not yet clear how Gov. Brian Kelly (R) will handle the timing. The district is considered safe for Republicans but the surprise and turmoil surrounding Greene’s announcement are a wild card. I’d still expect this seat to go to a Republican, but whether of the MAGA variety is less certain.

            Some Congressional staffers have been reported to say that that more resignations by Republicans are quite possible. Those events can’t be evaluated until they occur—if they do.

            Based on what we know at this moment, the numbers in the House following the special elections listed above will probably be these:

    GOP:             220
    Democrats:        215

            If no vacancies exist, 218 constitutes a majority. If further resignations drop the GOP below the number of seats held by the Democrats, the House would change hands. GOP members considering resignation would be pressured heavily not to do so if the numbers get any closer than they are.
Further, if a seat becomes open for a district which actually might change hands following a special election, then the possibilities for this rare swap increase. For reference, the last time control of the House moved from one party to the other during a term was in 1930.

            Of course, events could continue to develop and surprises sometimes happen. Beyond unexpected resignations, people sometimes die; the median age in the House right now is about 57.5 years, and annual mortality rates for people of that age are a bit less than one death for every hundred people, so three or four vacancies by natural causes would not be surprising before next November’s midterm elections. Deaths will also not correlate in any predictable way to party affiliation.

          I’ll update this topic as warranted.