By
ignoring court rulings, attacking free speech, violating the Fourth and Fifth
Amendments, and illegally using the Defense Department (it’s not called “War”
until Congress says so) to attempt to control American cities, Trump is posing
such an affront to democracy that I can imagine a day—perhaps quite soon—when
Americans who support the Constitution will need to remove him from office. Assuming
that we might not have until midterm elections alter Congress, how could that be
done?
Scenario 1: impeachment and removal. This will remain
profoundly unlikely as long as Congress is in the craven, cruel, grasping hands
of the Republican Party. Speaker Johnson will not allow an impeachment vote,
but far before that the process would stop with committees refusing to even
schedule hearings or votes on impeachment articles. And should a series of
miracles move the House to vote for impeachment, the Senate would need almost a
score of GOP senators to break with their party to vote Trump out. It’s more
likely that the moon will turn to cheddar overnight.
Scenario 2: removal via Amendment 25. Also deeply unlikely as it would require action by Vice-Pres. Vance and half plus one of the Cabinet, generally all Trump loyalists. The grounds would be mental disability unless a stroke or some other physical ailment presents itself, but we cannot count on those officials to do their jobs by being loyal to the Constitution and the country rather than Trump and this authoritarian version of the Republican Party.
Sidebar: the two main Constitutional mechanisms for presidential removal are clearly not workable because of partisanship. We need to think of better means and pass an amendment to remedy this set of problems when the fascistic poltroons are no longer in charge.
Scenario 3: military coup. After the recent assembly of
top brass at the insistence of Trump, and the bizarre set of remarks they heard
from him and Hegseth and, I’d regard this as more likely than ever before. The
nonsense they witnessed, the dementia they observed, the insults they
fielded—it must have been apparent to many in that room that the administration
is led by fools and that those fools are trying to use U.S. armed forces for
unconstitutional purposes. I don’t know exactly what form an armed forces coup
might take, and certainly see deep dangers should this be attempted, but clearly
also a number of top brass would be unlikely to follow unconstitutional orders.
If Trump insists, or continues firing those more loyal to the Constitution than
to him, a military coup is conceivable and might be worth the risk and
dangerous precedent.
Scenario 4: popular uprising. The
problem is that many people are agitated but feeling helpless, and perhaps
thirty percent of the voting public will lick Trump’s boots no matter what he
does. Such uprisings need not be uniformly popular, but do require a threshold
of support. With the president’s approval rating hovering at 40%, we may not be
at that threshold yet. And who will lead? Few movements of this sort spring
entirely from the grassroots. I’ve seen some speculation that an uprising could
be inspired and led by past presidents, perhaps with other prominent political
figures (say, Obama and Bush and Romney and several governors and whomever else
will step to the fore). But who is stepping up? If this is happening, it’s
hidden from public view but of course public uprisings cannot be for long. I
don’t see this one baking in the oven yet. It’s a bunch of ingredients sitting
in a pantry (unless clandestine cooks are at work in a secret kitchen).
Scenario 4: storming the White House
with Trump in it. This would be a bloody mess at best, and exactly who would do
it? The Maryland and Virginia National Guard? A huge crowd of protestors? I
think of barricade scenes from Les Misérables except with less singing
and more actual dying and wonder if we’ll come to this. A crowd would need to
be supplemented with rocket launchers to prevent a helicopter from whisking the
president and other officials away. The provoking moment would need be egregious,
perhaps Trump trying to suspend habeas corpus and locking up political
opponents, or tight clamps on freedom of speech, or something even worse—like
sacking Portland or Chicago.
Of course none of these scenarios
would play out if Trump had the grace and courtesy to die or become physically
incapacitated. A post-Trump political world might be messy or horrible, but
Trumpists will not necessarily become Vance supporters with similar enthusiasm,
and that would provide an opportunity for the saner Republicans to reassert
themselves. But we can’t be sure about any of this, having no comparable event
in our history for reference, and so it’s worth remembering that forcing Trump
out would not guarantee that our political culture would regain balance.
Removing Trump is the first step,
not the last.
